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Thursday, November 30, 2017

Thursday Morning Quarterback

Sunny, Dark and Cloudy 

Sunny
1. Robby Anderson
I’ve gushed about this player since last year. He can be the complete package but must produce more “equity” before he becomes the typical wide receiver diva. Lobbying for the Pro-Bowl was inexcusable. Throwing his helmet looked awful but his frustrations were understood. He goes for every ball thrown to him laying himself out without regard for injury. He looks like he has the body that will keep him healthy.
2. DeMario Davis
Who would have thunk it this year? I was the Jets biggest critic for getting him back. If you overlook some of his pass coverages and penalties, he is having a tremendous year. I never thought I’d say it but the Jets have to lock this guy up.
3. Lac Edwards
Last year I thought he was awful. He picked the worse times to shank the football. What a difference a year makes. Except for just few bad kicks he has hit them high, far and when needed inside the 15-yard line. Besides that he is 1-1 passing for 31 yards. In a season like this his good year is going under the radar.

Dark
1. Brian Winters
This guard is thought of highly but all I see are untimely penalties that put the Jets in a hole. He looks good sporadically but is inconsistent.
2. The Jets Return Game
Whether it is JoJo Natson or Kalif Raymod, the Jets cannot establish any type of returns especially on punts. This has got to be addressed in the off season. 
3. Sacks on defense and offense
The Jets defense has only 22 sacks this year.  I know sacks can be an overrated stat but at times the opposing QB’s look like they have all day. How can both Mo Wilkerson and Leonard Williams disappear while they are both on the field?
On offense the Jets have given up 35 sacks. All Jet fans know it is not the number but when the sacks happen. Leave to the offensive line to push the Jets out of field goal range time and again.

Cloudy
1. The Jets Offensive Line
I expected the worse. Don’t get me wrong, they have not been good but at times they surprise me when they sustain a drive. The penalties are killers so are the sacks but I’m not sure what to make of this crew. I think they definitely need two new studs.
2.  Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Three weeks ago I wanted to lock this tight end up for the long term. Right now I’m not sure what he is and the last five games are big for him.
3. Chandler Catanzaro
I wanted the Jets to keep Ross Martin but they thought kicking it deep on kickoffs was more important. His kickoffs have been good and he has made some field goals and missed too many in the clutch. I’m just not 100% confident when he walks on the field to attempt a 40-yard field goal.

Jets Future Quarterback Situation Gets Murkier
With the New York Giants putting Eli Manning out to pasture and starting former Jet Geno Smith, the quarterback situation gets more interesting everyday. The Giants have officially put themselves in the market for a quarterback while the 49ers probably found one in Jimmy Garoppolo who gets his first start this Sunday. Seth Walder an excellent writer for ESPN just wrote an article about the Football Power Index (FPI) which projects which order the teams will draft once the season ends. 

“Each week, the Football Power Index (FPI) projects the order of next year's draft by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game location. FPI takes some time to run, but on Sundays we can produce a live projection that includes that day's results but does not incorporate changes to FPI ratings based on that day's performances.”

In Walder’s article the FPI had the following projected draft order for the first ten picks:

1. Cleveland Browns
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. New York Giants
5. New York Jets 
6. Denver Broncos
7. Chicago Bears
8. Miami Dolphins
9. Arizona Cardinals
10.Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Of course this is just speculation and can change. The Jets do have a knack for playing themselves out of a good pick for a quarterback the last few games of the season. In 2007 the Jets beat the Chiefs the last game of the season and ended up picking Vernon Gholston in the 6th round when if they lost could have probably had QB Matt Ryan who went to the Atlanta Falcons. They also missed out on Joe Flacco who went to the Baltimore Ravens with the 18th pick the same year. In 2014 the Jets finished 4-12 and again had the 6th pick in the draft. They beat the Titans in game 14 and the Dolphins in game 16. If both these games were losses, Marcus Mariotta would be a New York Jet today. 
The projected order may change but the Jets will probably draft anywhere from 4th-6th. The good news is if the Jets decide to move up in the draft, it will cost them but not as much as if they moved up from say the 15th pick. The bad news is that there have been rumblings that USC's Sam Darnold wants to return for his senior year. And this week UCLA’s Josh Rosen let it be known that he may return for another year. The Jets bad luck is incredible when it comes to getting a franchise quarterback. There also may be some residual good news if these two decide to go back to school. In this QB heavy year there are numerous underclassman who said they would also be returning to school for another year. However some may decide it is better to come out the year when either Darnold or Rosen or both don’t come out. Here is the quarterback rankings today by Walter Football.

1.  Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA 
2.  Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville 
3.  Sam Darnold, QB, USC 
4.  Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming 
5.  Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma 
6.  Clayton Thorson, QB, Northwestern
7.  Luke Falk, QB, Washington State 
8.  Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State 
9.  Jarrett Stidham, QB, Auburn 
10. Riley Ferguson, QB, Memphis 
11. Chase Litton, QB, Marshall 
12. Kurt Benkert, QB, Virginia 
13. Nick Fitzgerald, QB, Mississippi State  

 I went to 13 because I love Nick Fitzgerald of Mississippi State but it is almost a foregone conclusion that he will return for another year. Statistically Lamar Jackson is having an incredible year but many think he is not NFL quarterback material. I’m not so sure about that.

Top 10 NFL Free Agent QB’s
1. Kirk Cousins, Washington 29 years old
2. Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings 25 years old
3. Case Keenum, Minnesota Vikings 30 years old
4. Sam Bradford, Minnesota Vikings 30 years old
5. Josh McCown, New York Jets 38 years old
6. Jay Cutler, Miami Dolphins 34 years old
7. Matt Moore, Miami Dolphins 34 years old
8. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 years old
9. Chase Daniel, New Orleans Saints 31 years old
10. Brock Osweiler, Denver Broncos 27 years old

I also believe Eli Manning and Tyrod Taylor will be available.


What the Jet scribes are saying:

Rich Cimini, ESPN
It's been forever since they drafted and developed a true star. In fact, the last time one of their skill-position draft picks went to the Pro Bowl in a Jets uniform was 1999. That was wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson, the No. 1 overall pick in 1996. Running back Curtis Martin made Pro Bowls as a Jet in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but he came as a free agent.No one expected a juggernaut, not after the roster overhaul, but general manager Mike Maccagnan needs to take a hard look at his O. Of his top nine picks over three drafts, only three were offensive players: wide receiver Devin Smith (derailed by injuries), quarterback Christian Hackenberg (non-factor) and wide receiver ArDarius Stewart (slow to develop). The Pro Bowl drought will hit 18 years this season, which means it'll be old enough to enlist in the military.

Brian Costello, NY Post
There is no question the Jets have surpassed expectations this season. Bowles deserves credit for that. He made sure his team ignored the outside negativity in the offseason and has gotten his players to play hard all year. They have been in every game they have played. However, the Jets continue to falter in fourth quarters and commit way too many penalties. They are 19-24 in Bowles’ three seasons without a playoff appearance. Over the final five games, Bowles needs to win a few more games, have his team continue to fight each week and it would help if the team cut down on the penalties. Jets owner Christopher Johnson will have to answer one question at the end of the season: Is the arrow pointing up? If he feels like it is, Bowles stays. If it’s not, Bowles goes.The answer increasingly feels like no, and if he is, it would be another year of Josh McCown holding the fort for a young guy the Jets take in the draft. We all thought the Jets would have played Christian Hackenberg and/or Bryce Petty by now. Instead, we may get through the entire year without either of them playing. For Hackenberg, that will be two years without playing — an amazing statement of where the Jets think the 2016 second-round pick is in his development. It looks like the Jets will either draft a quarterback or sign a veteran or trade for one. The Jets still feel far, far away from having an answer at the position.

Manish Mehta, NY Daily News
It's an unforgiving business that will chew you up and spit you out no matter how many gold stars are on your resume.(Rex) Ryan believes that Revis might have taken that reality for granted last season. There are no free lunches even for all-time greats in this industry. The fact that Revis owned the NFL landscape from 2009 to 2011 matters little now. Whispers that Revis was content after finally winning a Super Bowl with the Patriots and cashing in with a mega contract from the Jets that included $39 million fully guaranteed grew louder last season……Can Revis make a real difference for the slumping Chiefs (6-5), who have lost five of their last six games?

"He never had to come back, but the fact that he did is big," Ryan said. "It shows that, hell, he's ready to compete. I think he'll play his ass off. I can't wait to see."

                                

                             

              

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