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Sunday, March 18, 2018

Jets Next 10 Years To Be Determined By Giants

The Jet announced that it had acquired the number 3 overall pick of the draft in a trade with the Indianapolis Colts. The Jets will send their first draft choice (6th overall) along with three number 2 draft picks, their #2's this year, #37 and #49 and their second-rounder in 2019 to Indianapolis. This one is hard to digest. On the surface it looks like the Jets overpaid to move up three spots. But when you look at it closely, the Jets were able to keep their future number one picks while still having a shot at that franchise quarterback. And if you want t rationalize it more the pick they received from Seattle for Sheldon Richardson that was thrown in with Jermaine Kearse was a gift. So in essence the Jets gave up two #2’s of their own to move up. When the Eagles moved from #8 to #2 overall last year, they gave up a 1st, 3rd and 4th round pick in 2016, a 1st round pick in 2017, a 2nd round pick in 2018 and got Wentz back along with a 2017 4th rounder. We have heard it countless times but the NFL is a quarterback driven league and the feeding frenzy has begun for the next Peyton Manning or Carson Wentz! Green Rewind contributor Ralph Sharaga made it a point with me over the weekend that the Jets can possibly trade out of that pick going back in the first round and actually gain more equity in draft picks than what they gave up. This may be true but I would be very surprised if they did that. With the Browns picking first and the Giants picking second, the Jets are assured one of the four quarterbacks everyone is talking about, Darnold, Rosen, Allen and Mayfield. If you believe what the experts are saying then the Giants may determine the Jets future. Everybody is sure that the Browns will take a quarterback at one. If they do the Giants will have to chose between a quarterback and Sequon Barkley the prized running back from Penn State. Rumors are also popping up that the Giants may trade back with the Buffalo Bills or Arizona Cardinals or Miami Dolphins. I would be surprised if the Giants don’t take a quarterback. The bottom line is the Jets will get one of the top four QBs. Stay tuned, the next six weeks will be the longest poker game you will ever see among NFL General Managers.

Here is the latest order of the 2018 NFL Draft
I have put in bold teams that may want to move up to draft a QB in the top four.
1.  Cleveland (0-16) .520
2.  New York Giants (3-13) .531
3.  New York Jets - from Indianapolis (4-12) .480
4.  Cleveland - from Houston (4-12) .516
5.  Denver (5-11) .492
6.  Indianapolis - from New York Jets (5-11) .520
7.  Tampa Bay (5-11) .555
8.  Chicago (5-11) .559
9.  San Francisco (6-10) .512
10. Oakland (6-10) .512
11. Miami (6-10) .543
12. Buffalo - from Cincinnati (7-9) .465
13. Washington (7-9) .539
14. Green Bay (7-9) .539
15. Arizona (8-8) .488
16. Baltimore (9-7) .441
17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) .457
18. Seattle (9-7) .492
19. Dallas (9-7) .496
20. Detroit (9-7) .496
21. Cincinnati - from Buffalo* (9-7) .492
22. Buffalo - from Kansas City* (10-6) .477
23. Los Angeles Rams* (11-5) .504
24. Carolina* (11-5) .539
25. Tennessee* (9-7) .434
26. Atlanta* (10-6) .543
27. New Orleans* (11-5) .535
28. Pittsburgh* (13-3) .453
29. Jacksonville* (10-6) .434
30. Minnesota* (13-3) .492
31. New England* (13-3) .484
32. Philadelphia* (13-3) .461

2004 NFL Draft
I found the  2004 draft fascinating with a similar feel to this years'. There were three quarterbacks coming out that teams thought were sure things. Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger were all picked within the first 11 picks of the draft. The former GM of the NY Giants, Ernie Accorsi has said he knew that the three coming out were all going to be good. He had Eli Manning rated a little ahead of the other two and when Eli stated he wouldn’t play in San Diego, Acccorsi put together a huge package to get Manning trading Rivers for him along with a slew of draft picks (see below). Manning has two Super Bowl wins on his resume and Accorsi was right with the package he gave up.

“You make that trade, you do something like that, to win championships,” said Accorsi. “But, the blessing for us, which was not a blessing when we went through it, was the 2003 season.”

The Giants went 4-12 in the 2003 season and they had the fourth pick in the 2004 NFL Draft. After Manning was selected first overall by the Chargers, Accorsi drafted Philip Rivers and the two teams worked out a deal. It was a win-win situation for both organizations as Manning led the Giants to two Super Bowl wins and Rivers has had a spectacular career, but Accorsi had his sights set on Manning and the losing season helped shape the organization’s future.

“If we wouldn’t have gotten to the fourth spot [in the draft], God only knows what we would have had to give up to get up there,” said Accorsi. “When we picked Eli, we picked him to win championships.”

The 2004 First 12 Draft Picks

1 1 San Diego Chargers Eli Manning       QB Ole Miss traded to New York Giants[7]
1 2 Oakland Raiders         Robert Gallery      OT Iowa
1 3 Arizona Cardinals         Larry Fitzgerald    WR Pittsburgh
1 4 New York Giants         Philip Rivers         QB NC State traded to San Diego[8]
1 5 Washington Redskins Sean Taylor             S Miami (FL)
1 6 Cleveland Browns         Kellen Winslow II TE Miami (FL) from Detroit[9]
1 7 Detroit Lions                 Roy Williams        WR Texas          from Cleveland[9]
1 8 Atlanta Falcons         DeAngelo Hall       CB Virginia Tech
1 9 Jacksonville Jaguars Reggie Williams    WR Washington
1 10 Houston Texans         Dunta Robinson     CB South Carolina
1 11 Pittsburgh Steelers         Ben Roethlisberger QB Miami (OH)
1 12 New York Jets                 Jonathan Vilma       LB Miami (FL)

The New York Giants received:
Eli Manning, QB

The San Diego Chargers received:
Philip Rivers, QB
2004 3rd-round pick (Nate Kaeding, PK)
2005 1st-round pick (Shawne Merriman, OLB)
2005 5th-round pick (traded to TB for Roman Oben, OT)

Time will tell whether the Jets and Mike Maccagnan were right making this trade. The Jets still have more holes to fill than a swiss cheese factory but hopefully there is a good plan in place. Football is fun again!

Free Agent Grades

Spencer Long (from the Washington Redskins)
Center, 27 years old, (4 years, $28 million):
I was really hoping for Ryan Jensen but Long, a former third-round pick from Nebraska, even with a bad 2017 due to injuries, is still an upgrade over Wesley Johnson. He is coming off his worst year but should bounce back and keep the opposing NT from collapsing the Jet guards. I love versatile players and Long has also played guard.

Avery Williamson (from the Tennessee Titans)
Inside linebacker, 27 years old, (3 years, $22.5 million; $16 million guaranteed) A 2014 fifth-round pick from the Kentucky, Williamson has done a good job of improving his game each year. This is a real good signing for the Jets. With Demario Davis gone, Williamson is a perfect replacement. He is more of a two-down linebacker who struggles in pass coverage (this must be a Jet linebacker trait) and rarely sees the field on third down passing situations.

Teddy Bridgewater (from the Minnesota Vikings)
Quarterback, 25 years old (1 year, $5 million with incentives)
This one was a no brainer. It is a low risk, high reward signing. Bridgewater is coming off a horrific knee injury. He just passed his physical with the Jets. He has started 28 NFL games and has passed for over 6,000 yards with 28 TD passes and 22 interceptions. His lifetime QB rating is 86.3. Jet fans should not worry if by some miracle Bridgewater has an incredible season with either Darnold, Rosen, Allen and Mayfield on the bench. Even with a one-year contract the Jets can franchise him. There are good problems to have and bad problems to have. This would be a good problem.

Isaiah Crowell  (from the Cleveland Browns) 
Running Back, 25 years old (3 years, $12 million; $6 million guaranteed) Crowell was a huge disappointment this past season, struggling in most games despite running behind a solid offensive line (when Joe Thomas was healthy.) However, Crowell is worth a shot, as he has good talent. His best year was 2016 when he rushed for 952 yards with an impressive 4.8 yards per carry. He also caught 40 balls out of the backfield. This is a good signing with a good upside.

Trumaine Johnson (from the LA Rams) 
Cornerback, 28 years old (5 years, $72.5 million; $34 million guaranteed) The Jets biggest free agent signing. This former third round pick from Montana is the real deal. Not quite a Darrell Revis in his prime but Johnson always covers the number one receiver which will help Morris Claiborne. He has 18 lifetime interceptions including seven in 2015.

Kevin Pierre-Louis (from the KC Chiefs)
Outside Linebacker, 26 years old
Pierre-Louis is coverage linebacker who can play in sub packages and on special teams. He's seen as a potential complement to new MLB Avery Williamson, who is a first- and second-down linebacker. Pierre-Louis has some upside and this player from Boston College adds much needed depth to the linebacking corp.

Morris Claiborne (1 year, $7 million)
Cornerback, 28-years old. The only returning Jet I’ve included on this list. It is good to have him back! When he plays well, he is a shut down corner. Problem is keeping him healthy and he disappeared for a couple of games last year. Trumaine Johnson will cover the number one receiver leaving Claiborne to excel and turn his one year contract into a big payday next year.


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