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Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Draft 2.0

"Give me 25 players with one- year contracts and I'll win the pennant every year."
-Earl Weaver, former Baltimore Orioles manager

                           Breshad Perriman vs. Robby Anderson

  I remember some time back in March 2013 when Wes Welker left the Patriots to sign with the Denver Broncos for a two-year contract worth $12 million. As a Jet fan I was ecstatic that we finally got Welker out of the AFC East. I picked up the phone and called Green Rewind contributor Ralph Sharaga (who resides in Boston) to have a mini celebration. As I remember it as I was hanging up the phone, within a minute Ray Clifford calls me and asked, "See what's going on with the Pats?" I told him I knew all about them losing Welker but then he told me that the Pats had just signed Danny Amendola. My heart sunk. Belichick did it again! I couldn't believe it. And to put salt into both Welker and me, he signed Amendola for 5 years and $31 million. As WFAN's Joe Benigno always says "Oh the pain."  The Jets lost Robby Anderson and then signed Breshad Perriman almost within the same time span as the Welker-Amendola episode.  Some pundits and living room couch general managers have been pounding the Jets for letting Robby Anderson go at a price the Jets could have afforded. If you followed this free agency since it began one thing you learned about Joe Douglas, he has a price and terms and does not really deviate from that. You can see why Adam Gase was so incensed that Mike Maccagnan paid so much to Le'Veon Bell and even winced at the price given to stalwart linebacker C.J. Mosley. Both Gase and Douglas seem to have the same philosophy when it comes to paying players. Though I'm not convinced Adam Gase is the right coach for this team, being on the same page as the General Manager can pay long term dividends. Robby Anderson is the better receiver of the two though Breshad Perriman is not chopped liver. On the negative side Perriman, a former first round pick (26th overall) has never lived up to expectations. The Jets are the fifth team he is on since 2015. What concerns me most about Perriman is his injury history. I have a hard time with players who cannot stay on the field. Going back to NFL Combine Perriman did not participate due to a hamstring injury. Here is the rest of his injury history:

Oct 15, 2017  Head Cranial Concussion Grade 1, Perriman left Week 6 with a concussion and missed the following game.

Aug 1,  2017  Thigh Hamstring Strain Grade 2, Perriman strained his right hamstring Aug. 1 and missed the entire preseason.

Jun 11, 2016  Knee ACL Sprain Grade 2, Perriman partially tore his left ACL at a June minicamp. He had arthroscopic surgery shortly there after and  returned for the 4th preseason game.

Sep 27, 2015  Knee PCL Tear Grade 3 Perriman exacerbated the tear in his right PCL during pre-game warm-ups in Week 3. He had arthroscopic surgery and eventually landed on IR, missing the entire season.

Jul 30, 2015  Knee PCL Sprain Grade 2, Perriman partially tore his right PCL on the 1st day of training camp. He returned to practice Sept. 24 but missed the rest of the season after a setback.

* Nov 9, 2013   Non-NFL Head Cranial Concussion Grade 1, Perriman left the game against Texas with a concussion and missed the following game.
 * College injury

  As you see the injury history is not good. Since he was drafted he has played in 4 seasons. He has played in 51 games, and started 10 games. His first 4 years in the NFL are not reflective of a first round pick. Now let's look at the positives and why Joe Douglas may have really ended up buying a quality player wholesale. First off the contract is only for one year. As the quote above by Earl Weaver tells us, players play hard in contract years. Even though he did not participate in the NFL Combine he did partake at the University of Central Florida Pro Day and ran two sub-4.3 40-yard dashes. Now that is moving. He signed a contract with the Cleveland Browns in October 2018 and had 16 rec., 340 yds., 2 TDs. To me the most impressive thing about this small sample size is the 21.25 yards per reception. I point this out because if you followed the NFL closely last year, Perriman did not play much early in the year for Tampa Bay but was one of the top 5 receivers in the league for the last 5 games. In that span he had, 25 receptions, 506 yards, for an average of 20.2 yards per reception with 5 TDs. which are really elite numbers if you can do that over a complete season.

What does all this mean? For the numbers that Robby Anderson signed with Carolina the Jets should have at least matched that. He was developing a chemistry with Sam Darnold toward the end of the year. With that said Anderson does carry some baggage with his off the field stuff as well as the ridiculous penalties he gets when he removes his helmet out of frustration. Signing Breshad Perriman (for 1 year) was a good signing. You can do any kind of analysis you want about Perriman but until he passes the eye test and produces on the field will we know.

Green Rewind Draft 2.0
News is slow because of the Coronavirus. Trade rumors are rampant. The latest being the Jets and Falcons in a trade. The rumor was the Jets trade Quinnen Williams for the Falcons first round pick which is the 16th pick. Below is the Draft Pick Value Chart for the first 16 picks of the first two rounds. The NFL Draft Trade Value Chart is used by NFL general managers and coaches when making trades on draft day. If a team wants to move up from No. 3 to No. 1, it'll cost them 800 points. That means it'll have to trade its second- and third-round picks (550 + 255 = 805) to make the move. It is expensive to move up but teams do it. The Eagles paid a price to move up for QB Carson Wentz as did the Jets to move up to nab QB Sam Darnold. I've had long discussions with Green Rewind's Ray Clifford because Joe Douglas may value a quantity of picks if his players are off the board. This is why it makes no sense for JD to make a trade before draft day. Play your cards right and see what has been picked before you. There is ample time in the first round to field phone calls. My feeling is that if there is a run on offensive linemen and QB's and the Jets can't get the player they want, JD moves back. But not too far!

Draft Pick Value Chart
Rd. Pick Value Tm
1 1 3000 Cincinnati Bengals
1 2 2600 Washington Redskins
1 3 2200 Detroit Lions      
1 4 1800 New York Giants
1 5 1700 Miami Dolphins
1 6 1600 Los Angeles Chargers
1 7 1500 Carolina Panthers
1 8 1400 Arizona Cardinals
1 9 1350 Jacksonville Jaguars
1 10 1300 Cleveland Browns
1 11 1250 New York Jets
1 12 1200 Oakland Raiders
1 13 1150 Indianapolis Colts
1 14 1100 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1 15 1050 Denver Broncos
1 16 1000 Atlanta Falcons

2 33 580 Cincinnati Bengals
2 34 560 Indianapolis Colts
2 35 550 Detroit Lions
2 36 540 New York Giants
2 37 530 Los Angeles Chargers
2 38 520 Carolina Panthers
2 39 510 Miami Dolphins
2 40 500 Arizona Cardinals
2 41 490 Cleveland Browns
2 42 480 Jacksonville Jaguars
2 43 470 Chicago Bears
2 44 460 Indianapolis Colts
2 45 450 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2 46 440 Denver Broncos
2 47 430 Atlanta Falcons

1. Cincinati Bengals, Joe Burrow, QB, LSU, 
2. Washington Redskins, Chase Young, DE/OLB, Ohio State, 
3. Detroit Lions, Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State,
4. NY Giants, Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa, 
5. Miami Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama, 
6. LA Chargers, Jordan Love QB, Utah State, 
7. Carolina Panthers,Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon,
8. Arizona Cardinals,Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville, 
9. Jacksonville Jaguars,Jacob Eason, QB, Washington, 
10.Cleveland Browns,Andrew Thomas OL,Georgia. 
11.Tampa Bay Buccaneers(from Jets),Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama,
12.Las Vegas Raiders, Isaiah Simmons LB, Clemson
13.San Francisco 49ers (from IND), Derrick Brown - DT , Auburn
14.Dallas Cowboys,(from Jets) K'Lavon Chaisson - Edge
15.Denver Broncos, Javon Kinlaw, DL, South Carolina, 
16.Atlanta Falcons,Austin Jackson,OL, USC,
17.Jets,Cee Dee Lamb, (from Dallas) WR, Oklahoma
18.Miami Dolphins(from Steelers),Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama,
19.Las Vegas Raiders (from Bears),AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson
20.Jacksonville Jaguars (from Rams),Jalon Johnson, CB, Utah
21.Philadelphia Eagles,Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama, 
22.Minnesota (from Bills) CJ Henderson, CB, Florida, 
23.NE Patriots, Josh Jones, OL, Houston
24.NO Saints,Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
25.Minn. Vikings,Justin Jefferson,WR, LSU, 
26.Miami Dolphins,(from Texans)-A.J. Epenesa, Edge, Iowa, 
27.Seattle Seahawks, Kenneth Murray,LB,Oklahoma,
28.Balt. Ravens,D'Andre Swift,RB, Georgia,
29.Tenn. Titans,Trevon Diggs CB,Alabama,
30.GB Packers,Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson, 
31.SF 49ers,Zack Baun, LB, Wisconsin,
32. KC Chiefs,Cesar Ruiz, C, Michigan  

New York Jets Picks
1. Cee Dee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma, Jets lose out on OL (Andrew Thomas) they wanted but trade down twice with Tampa Bay and Cowboys to gain depth.

2. Josh Jones, OL, Houston, Jets had a 1st round grade on Jones so feel the value is too great to pass up.

3. Bradlee Anae, Edge, Utah, Four year player who's 13 sacks his senior year is just what the Jets need.

3. Adam Trautman, TE, Dayton, This converted QB is someone Joe Douglas loved and doesn't care if the Jets tight end position is loaded.

4. Michael Ojemudia, CB, Iowa, This DB got better every year at Iowa. His 4.45 40 yard time was also a selling point.

4. Davon Hamilton, DL, Ohio State, 9 1/2 tackles for a loss had Greg Williams drooling watching game film.

4.  Darryl Williams, OL, Mississippi State, (holdover from draft 1.0) Williams is a developmental prospect who will need coaching before seeing the field. This could be a hit or miss. A chance pick for depth.

5. Darrell Mooney, WR, Tulane, ( another holdover from draft 1.0) An undersized speedster (40 Time: 4.38.), his gateway to the 53 man NFL roster is special teams. His slight frame will be a negative but you can't teach speed.

6. Trystan Colon-Castillo, OL, Missouri, Say his name 3 times fast! Three-year starter in challenging conference but is probably a practice squad player if that.

6. Harrison Hand, CB, Temple, Cherry Hill NJ native's dream is to play for a local team. Has a shot. Hope he has good hands.

6. Derrek Tuszka, Edge, No. Dakota State, A hard-nosed, physical 4-3 base end who had 29.5 sacks as 3 yr. starter. A sleeper who will make it with the right situation.

7. J.J. Taylor, RB, Arizona, At only 5'6" will hard be to find behind huge OL. Had 5.6 yds. per carry for Wildcats with 3,263 rushing yds. & 487 receiving yds.             

Green Tidbits
.....Boomer Esiason said his sources told him the Jets had a 4 year $40 million dollar contract on the table for Robby Anderson who chose the 2 year deal with Carolina instead but the Anderson camp denies this.....Connor Hughes of the Athletic was on WFAN and after phone calls and his own investigating had some positive things to say about newly signed Jet George Fant and even Jet tackle Chuma Edoga. One thing I can tell you about Connor Hughes is that he does his homework.....If you own a bar or restaurant, you should hope Joe Douglas walks in. He twice laid a $100. tip on a bill for about the same.....Call me a homer but there is something I love about linebackers Tarell Basham and Neville Hewitt. There were games when they both always seemed to be around the ball.....The Jets can recoup nearly $14 million by releasing linebacker Avery Williamson and guard Brian Winters. I thought Winters was a goner but not sure now.....Don't expect the Jets to get a 2021 compensatory pick, they signed too many free agents.....CB Jeff Okudah from Ohio State would be a steal if available at 11.....Fingers remained crossed NFL draft will proceed as planned..... Stay safe everyone!

           Curb Your Enthusiasm Jets Fight
                                               (please watch it all)

What the Jet scribes are saying
Rich Cimini, ESPN
......The Jets could have four new starters if they draft a tackle with the No. 11 pick, and building chemistry is an absolute must because this has to be an offensive line whose whole is greater than the sum of its parts. It has no Pro Bowl players. In fact, it's the only line in the NFL that doesn't include a first- or second-round pick. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

"My theory on the offensive line is, I don't need a bunch of great players," a longtime personnel executive said. "I just want five guys who work well together and have a special offensive line coach. Do I want to pay a left tackle like a quarterback? No. You can win with solid. Look at New England."

The Jets made five moves for the relatively modest cost of $40 million in guarantees, re-signing left guard Alex Lewis and adding left tackle George Fant (Seattle Seahawks), center Connor McGovern (Denver Broncos), guard Greg Van Roten (Carolina Panthers) and center/guard Josh Andrews (Indianapolis Colts).......

.....Douglas has assembled a cast of overachievers. Andrews, Fant and Van Roten broke into the league as undrafted free agents. Andrews and Van Roten have played for three and four teams, respectively. Lewis (fourth round) and McGovern (fifth) were Day 3 picks in the 2016 draft. (Fun fact: They were chosen with picks that were swapped in the same trade between the Baltimore Ravens and Broncos.) Moral of the story? Douglas wants players who are passionate about football, a trait usually found in players who had to come up the hard way.....

.....The makeover won't preclude the Jets from drafting a tackle in the first round. They might say they're content with Fant and Chuma Edoga as their starting tackles, but the reality is they won't hesitate to draft one if they believe the value is there. There are four premier tackles -- Mekhi Becton, Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills Jr. and Tristan Wirfs. There's a good chance one will slip to the Jets.....

Brian Costello, NY Post
Top free agent Robby Anderson departed  — agreeing to a two-year, $20 million deal with the Panthers that will pay him $12 million in the first year, according to a source. The spot did not remain open long, though, with the Jets agreeing to a deal with free-agent wide receiver Breshad Perriman hours later on a one-year deal worth up to $8 million, with $6 million guaranteed, according to his agent, Drew Rosenhaus. Quarterback Sam Darnold loses one of his favorite targets in Anderson, who will reunite with his college coach Matt Rhule in Carolina. The Jets will hope Perriman can replace Anderson’s production. The two had similar stat lines last season, and Perriman did it with less playing time with the Buccaneers. Perriman, 26, had 36 catches for 645 yards and six touchdowns for the Bucs, averaging 17.9 yards per reception in 14 games and receiving just 56 percent of the snaps. Anderson, also 26, had 52 catches for 779 yards and five touchdowns for the Jets in 16 games, receiving 91 percent of the snaps. Perriman can also replace the speed element lost with Anderson’s departure. When he was coming out of Central Florida in 2015, one scout clocked him at 4.19 in the 40-yard-dash at his Pro Day.....

.....With Tampa Bay, he did not play much early in the year, but came on in the final five weeks. He had 25 catches for 506 yards and five touchdowns in that five-game stretch.....

.....The Jets will likely add another receiver in the draft, which is loaded at the position. They might go offensive tackle with the first pick, but they could target a receiver on Day 2 of the draft. The chance to play for Rhule was something Anderson acknowledged was appealing to him back in January. Anderson missed a year at Temple because of academic ineligibility. Rhule let him return the next year.

“He’s a great coach. I texted him not too long ago and I thanked him,” Anderson said the day after the Jets’ season ended. “He fought and believed in me. He put his name on the line to make me get that second chance and get right.”

Now, he will be reunited with Rhule. He also will be catching passes from Teddy Bridgewater, who spent a brief time with the Jets in the 2018 offseason.

Manish Mehta, NY Daily News
Sixteen of the 20 people tasked to evaluate college prospects are carryovers from previous Jets regimes, but they’ve been taught to find solutions in a different way.
Douglas drew praise from former and current employees and co-workers, who spoke to the Daily News, for his ability to master an adopted draft grading system. He knows it like the back of his hand. Douglas’ charge was teaching his new colleagues to evaluate through a different lens.

“He knows this scale inside and out,” said one colleague. “He’s really good about placing guys in it. He understands roles and value. He’s a really good evaluator.”

Imparting his wisdom was pivotal. Douglas’ core scouting beliefs stem from the old Cleveland Browns draft model that places a premium on a prospect’s specific value and role for his team’s current offensive/defensive systems. While Maccagnan implemented a round-specific scale, Douglas’ grades are based on how a player fits into his coaches’ schemes. Embracing a role-specific focus was the biggest adjustment for Jets scouts, who had become accustomed to rate and review players before determining which round should be attached to the evaluation. Douglas’ system does not make any such conclusions. So, they no longer scout a player as a “first-round talent,” for example.

Douglas, who was introduced to the system 20 years ago as a Ravens scout, laid the groundwork for his scale last summer, making sure that every Jets talent evaluator not only understood the tenets of the new system, but was aligned on how best to approach college coaches/NFL liaisons during scouting trips to maximize the type of information that mattered most for the Jets.

                              Green Rewind Podcast
      Marty Schupak's philosophy on trading back in the draft.

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